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2020-11-11

MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Nov.11.

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated upward changes on Nov.10:

380 HSFO - USD/MT - 302.36 (+8.59)

VLSFO - USD/MT – 358.00 (+13.00)

MGO - USD/MT – 425.61 (+16.59)

Meantime, world oil indexes also increased on Nov.10 as the market continued to reassess the outlook for fuel demand in the wake of an announcement on Monday that encouraged hopes for an early end to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Brent for January settlement increased by $1.21 to $43.61 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for December rose by $1.07 to $41.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $2.25 to WTI. Gasoil for November delivery added $7.25.

Today oil indexes continue to rise amid positive COVID-19 vaccine news and positive U.S. stockpile data.

Crude oil stockpile data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a draw of 5.147 million barrels. It was forecasted the draw of only 900,000-barrel. For the previous week API reported a draw of 8.010 million barrels. The market now awaits crude oil supply outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due later in the day.

Vaccine news on Nov.09 from Pfizer Inc. is still support the market. However, there is yet to be certainty in that area. Pfizer announced its experimental Covid-19 drug had proved over 90% effective in preventing the coronavirus, citing results from a late-stage trial. Encouraging forecasts for returns to pre-pandemic consumption levels in the mid-term are helping push the oil prices up. At the same time, there are concerns, that this can affect demand destruction in Europe through year-end, although it could delay stricter restrictions in the United States.

From the other side, with Covid-19 cases still surging, not least in the U.S. the short-term outlook remains challenging. The U.S. recorded its fourth straight day of over 100,000 new infections yesterday and surges from California to the Midwest and the Mexican border strongly suggest that the pandemic has veered out of control while the nation has been distracted by the election campaign. As the second wave of the virus hit many Western countries, governments imposed new lockdowns, closing restaurants and bars and banning gatherings. But the measures were not as strict as during the first wave.

Renewed restrictions in Europe and the United States to combat the coronavirus have slowed down the pace of fuel demand recovery, offsetting a rebound in Asian economies where consumption has almost returned to pre-COVID levels.

Asian demand is also supporting oil indexes. Chinese inventories had fallen substantially in recent weeks as the domestic economy recovers. That has led to the government increasing private refineries’ import quotas for next year, which will be a net support to global demand. Beijing has also put in place minimum prices for refined products to guarantee refinery margins, at a time when refining margins around the world are under acute pressure. Japan’s demand has returned to close to pre-pandemic levels, also giving encouragement to fuel prices.

Tropical Storm Eta is also threatening to cut production from U.S. Gulf of Mexico rigs.

Elsewhere later, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its regular Short-Term Energy Outlook, the first of three major surveys on the oil market this week. Reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency will follow on today and tomorrow, respectively.

We expect bunker prices may continue to rise today: 5-7 USD up for IFO and 6-8 USD up for MGO.

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