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2021-09-02

MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 35, 2021

On a Week 35, the MABUX World Bunker Index continued its moderate upward evolution. The 380 HSFO index rose by 8.83 USD: from 447.22 USD / MT to 456.05 USD / MT, the VLSFO index increased by 9.56 USD: from 541.19 USD / MT to 550.75 USD / MT, while the MGO index added 8.88 USD (from 637.27 USD / MT up to 646.15 USD / MT).

The MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index, calculated as the average price of LNG as a marine fuel in the ARA region, demonstrated a sharp increase in the period of August 25 to September 01 from 980.05 USD / MT to 1024.35 USD / MT (plus 44.30 USD). At the same time, the average value of the LNG Bunker Index dropped by 11.48 USD compared to the previous week. The average price for MGO LS in Rotterdam for the same period surged by 29.83 USD / MT, while the average price difference between bunker LNG and MGO LS in Rotterdam fell by 41.32 USD and again dropped below 400 USD point: 386.43 USD (vs. 427.75 USD last week). LNG bunker price indices are available in the LNG Bunkering section of www.mabux.com.

The average weekly Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - remained virtually unchanged and stayed at $ 93.25 (versus $ 92.59 last week). At the same time, the average value of SS Spread in Rotterdam again jumped over the $ 100 mark: $ 106.50. On the contrary, in Singapore, the average SS Spread fell below the psychological mark of $ 100 and showed $ 93.00. The situation with SS Spread does not yet give any grounds to expect this index will stay firmly above $ 100 point, which somewhat reduces the attractiveness of scrubbers. More information is available in the Differentials section of www.mabux.com.

Correlation of MABUX MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX Digital Benchmark) in the four global largest hubs over the past week showed that 380 HSFO fuel grade returned into the overcharge segment in three out of four selected ports: in Singapore, the overpricing averaged plus $ 25 (versus plus $ 15 a week earlier), in Fujairah - plus $ 22 (versus plus $ 6), in Houston - plus $ 10 (versus minus $ 10). The only port with undercharged 380 HSFO fuel is Rotterdam - minus $ 3 versus zero a week earlier.

VLSFO fuel, according to the MABUX MBP / DBP Index, was also overvalued in three of the four ports, with the exception of Rotterdam, where it was undervalued by $ 3 (versus $ 11 a week earlier). In other ports, the average overpricing ratio was: in Houston - plus $ 9 (minus $ 3 last week), in Singapore - plus $ 7 (minus $ 11), in Fujairah - plus $ 4 (versus minus $ 29). The most significant change of the MABUX MBP / DBP Index is recorded in Fujairah: plus $ 33.

As for MGO LS, on Week 34 the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered an undercharge of this fuel grade at all selected ports ranging from minus $ 23 (minus $ 16 last week) in Houston to minus $ 24 (minus $ 25) in Rotterdam, minus $ 33 (vs. minus $ 28) in Singapore and minus $ 10 (minus $ 51) in Fujairah. There is a sharp decline of MGO LS underestimation margin registered in Fujairah: by $ 41.

In general, there has not yet been registered any single trend in the MABUX MBP / DBP Index for the main bunker fuel grades.

BIMCO reported, out of the 168 ordered containerships in the year-to-date, with a capacity of at least 11,800 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), 117 - 71% - will be delivered with a scrubber fitted directly from the shipyard. Moreover, a total of 29 units will be scrubber-fitted but also made LNG-ready, whereas 34 units will be delivered as ‘LNG-capable’, meaning that they will run on gas from day one. A total of 17 ships appear to be without any such modifications upon delivery. Some 619 container ships are now on order for future delivery. Of those, 381 have been ordered in 2021 alone.

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