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MABUX: Firm downtrend is expected in Global bunker market on Sep.16.

MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO) turned into the phase of irregular fluctuations on Sep.15:

380 HSFO - USD/MT – 528.76 (-3.94)

VLSFO - USD/MT – 797.88 (+2.92)

MGO - USD/MT – 1 118.80 (-41.15)

As of September 15, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index (MDI) (comparison of market bunker prices and the MABUX digital bunker price benchmark) recorded minor changes in the HSFO segment, no single dynamics in the VLSFO segment, and a growth in both undervaluation and overvaluation margins in the MGO LS segment.

As per MDI, 380 HSFO fuel grade remained undervalued on September 15 in all four selected ports. The underprice ratio was registered as: Rotterdam - minus $102 (minus $106 the day before), Singapore - minus $158 (minus $153), Fujairah - minus $162 (minus $157), Houston - minus $76 (minus $54). The MDI index changed irregular in this fuel segment with no significant changes.

In the VLSFO segment, all ports remained overvalued on September 15: Rotterdam - plus $ 3 versus plus $ 17 a day earlier, Singapore - plus $ 23 (plus $ 30), Fujairah - plus $ 37 (plus $ 33) and Houston - plus $ 14 (plus $ 27). Here, the MDI index also did not have single dynamics: the overcharge increased in Fujairah but decreased in the other three ports. Meantime, Rotterdam came close to the 100% correlation between market prices and the MABUX benchmark.

In the MGO LS segment, the Rotterdam-Singapore pair remained undervalued by minus $64 (minus $50 the day before) and minus $123 (minus $99), respectively, while the Fujairah-Houston pair was overvalued by plus $201 (plus $172) and plus $34 (plus $4). The undervaluation premium, as well as overvaluation one, increased significantly, and in Fujairah, the overcharge ratio exceeded $200-mark.

We expect global bunker indices to show a firm downtrend on Sep.16: 380 HSFO – minus 5-15 USD/MT, VLSFO – minus 5-15 USD/MT, MGO LS – minus 15-45 USD/MT.