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MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 44, 2023.

During Week 44, the MABUX global bunker indices exhibited erratic fluctuations with no clear sustained trends. The 380 HSFO index declined by $27.94, dropping from $562.50 USD/MT the previous week to $534.56 USD/MT. Conversely, the VLSFO index increased by $1.06, reaching $672.58 USD/MT compared to $671.52 USD/MT the previous week. The MGO index saw a significant decrease of $29.73, going from $986.93 USD/MT last week to $957.20 USD/MT. At the time of writing, market trends remain uncertain.

Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - showed a significant increase: plus $29.00 ($138.02 vs. $109.02 last week), still consistently above the $100.00 mark (the SS breakeven point). At the same time, the weekly average also increased by $11.01. In Rotterdam, on the contrary, the SS Spread decreased by $7.00 (from $90.00 last week to $83.00), but the average value saw a slight increase of $1.16. Thus, the SS Spread in Rotterdam is stably below the $100.00 mark, due to relatively high prices for 380 HSFO, combined with limited availability resulting from shipping delays and congestion at oil terminals in the ARA region. In Singapore, the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO increased by $18.00, surpassing the $200.00 mark ($205.00 versus $187.00 last week). The weekly average also increased by $10.34. We expect SS Spread will continue to rise moderately in the upcoming week. More information is available in the “Differentials” section of

According to Montel, LNG imports into northwest Europe are projected to surge by 30% in November compared to October, driven by anticipated higher demand at the start of the heating season. In the coming month, northwest Europe is expected to receive approximately 243 million cubic meters per day (mcm/day) of LNG, destined for the Netherlands, France, Germany, and the UK. These estimates for November indicate a 15% decrease compared to the same month in 2022. The pivotal factors influencing LNG imports into Europe in the months ahead will be weather conditions and weather forecasts. They will play a significant role in shaping European gas consumption during this winter and are currently the largest variables in the equation. European gas consumption has seen a reduction over the past year due to energy conservation efforts and decreased industrial demand, which can be attributed to high energy prices and demand constraints.

The cost of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines, Portugal, witnessed an upward trend, reaching $1,075 per metric ton on October 30th.

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