Bunker Global Open Directory News
2026-02-26MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 09, 2026.
At the close of Week 09, global bunker indices under the MABUX assessment continued their upward trajectory. The 380 HSFO index rose by USD 17.98, increasing from USD 434.70/MT last week to USD 452.68/MT, surpassing the USD 450.00 threshold. The VLSFO index gained USD 25.77, climbing to USD 548.39/MT compared to USD 522.62/MT a week earlier. The MGO LS index posted the most significant increase, advancing by USD 34.53 from USD 779.43/MT last week to USD 813.96/MT, thereby exceeding the USD 800.00 mark. At the time of writing, the global bunker market maintains upside potential, supported by prevailing bullish sentiment and continued strength across the fuel complex.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — demonstrated firm growth over the week, rising by $7.79 from $87.92 to $95.71, approaching the psychological $100.00 breakeven threshold. The average weekly value of the index also increased by $4.10. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread edged up by $2.00, reaching $52.00 compared to $50.00 the previous week, thereby exceeding the $50.00 level. The port’s average weekly SS Spread rose by $4.33. Singapore recorded the most pronounced weekly increase, with the 380 HSFO/VLSFO differential surging by $33.00 — from $41.00 to $74.00. The average weekly SS Spread in Singapore expanded by $15.17. By the end of the week, a stable upward trend in the SS Spread had formed across the global bunker market. Nevertheless, index values remain below the $100.00 mark, preserving the relatively stronger economic attractiveness of VLSFO compared to the 380 HSFO + scrubber combination.We expect the upward momentum in the SS Spread to persist into the coming week. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section at mabux.com.
By the end of the week, the Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) increased by $15.00, rising from $85.00 last week to the psychological threshold of $100.00. The weekly average also advanced by $13.34. In Venice, the ECA Spread gained $5.00, moving from $87.00 to $92.00. However, the port’s weekly average edged down slightly by $0.33. The ES indices in both ports are showing gradual recovery, supporting renewed demand for conventional ULSFO. We expect the ECA Spread to retain further upside potential in the coming week. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section at mabux.com.
EU gas markets in early 2026 are characterized by significantly reduced Russian exposure, increased reliance on LNG imports, structurally moderated demand, and relative price stabilization. Nevertheless, the market remains vulnerable to weather variability and geopolitical uncertainties. EU underground gas storage is expected to recover steadily through the summer 2026 injection season, provided demand remains contained and LNG inflows stay robust, thereby supporting supply adequacy ahead of the 2026–27 winter. However, inventories started the year at comparatively lower levels than in previous seasons, leaving the system more sensitive to adverse weather conditions and potential supply disruptions before the refill cycle is fully completed.
As of February 24, natural gas inventories in European underground storage facilities continued to decline, reaching 30.59% of total capacity — a further decrease of 2.43 percentage points compared to the previous week. Storage levels are now 30.87 percentage points below the level recorded on January 1, 2026 (61.46%). In Germany, storage fell to 20.67%, while in the Netherlands it declined to 11.39%, underscoring the ongoing tightening of supply conditions across key European markets. At the close of Week 09, the European gas benchmark TTF posted a modest increase of 1.069 euros/MWh, rising to 30.891 euros/MWh from 29.822 euros/MWh the previous week, once again surpassing the 30.000 euros/MWh threshold.
The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) increased by USD 22.00 this week, rising to USD 775/MT from USD 753/MT last week. The price differential between LNG and conventional fuel shifted in favor of LNG, reaching USD 15, as MGO LS was quoted at USD 790/MT on February 23 at the port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section of mabux.com.
At the close of Week 09, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — reflecting the ratio of Market Bunker Prices (MBP) to the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — indicated the following trends across the world’s major hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: Singapore returned to the undervalued zone, joining Rotterdam and Houston. The average weekly undervaluation narrowed by 3 points in Rotterdam and by 11 points in Houston, while in Singapore it widened by 7 points. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port in this segment, although its average MDI decreased by 2 points. Singapore’s MDI remains close to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP.
• VLSFO segment: All four ports were assessed as undervalued. The MDI continued to decline: by 5 points in Rotterdam, 7 points in Singapore, 12 points in Fujairah, and 3 points in Houston. Houston’s MDI remains near the 100% MBP/DBP correlation threshold.
• MGO LS segment: All ports were also in the undervalued zone. At the same time, the MDI increased by 17 points in Rotterdam, 11 points in Singapore, 15 points in Fujairah, and 21 points in Houston.
By the end of the week, the balance between undervalued and overvalued ports shifted further toward undervaluation, with Singapore re-entering this zone in the 380 HSFO segment. Other bunker fuel segments also recorded a renewed expansion of undervaluation levels. We expect the prevailing trend toward undervaluation to remain dominant in the global bunker market in the week ahead.
More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section at mabux.com.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global sustainable fuel supply and demand could increase fourfold by 2035, provided that announced policy measures are fully implemented. Under an accelerated scenario—assuming the effective deployment of incentivising frameworks—the IEA projects that sustainable fuel supply, which remained below 7 exajoules (EJ) in 2024, could double by 2030 and subsequently expand to more than 27 EJ by 2035. The most pronounced growth is expected in ammonia and biogases, reflecting their scalability and increasing policy support across key markets. On the demand side, the transport sector is projected to remain the primary growth driver. Consumption of sustainable fuels in transport is forecast to triple, rising from 5 EJ in 2024 to nearly 15 EJ by 2035. In hard-to-electrify segments, particularly shipping and aviation, sustainable fuels are anticipated to account for a significant share of total fuel consumption by 2035, underscoring their strategic role in decarbonisation pathways for these sectors.
The global bunker market is currently in the process of forming an upward trend. We expect the positive momentum in bunker indices to persist next week, although the pace of growth may moderate.
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