Bunker Global Open Directory News
2026-03-05MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 10, 2026.
Global bunker indices (MABUX) recorded a sharp increase in Week 10, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which significantly impacted energy markets. The 380 HSFO index surged by USD 112.58, rising from USD 452.64/MT last week to USD 565.22/MT, comfortably exceeding the USD 500.00 threshold. The VLSFO index also posted a substantial gain of USD 108.59, increasing from USD 548.34/MT to USD 656.93/MT. The most pronounced growth was observed in the MGO LS segment, where the index climbed by USD 205.02, from USD 815.19/MT to USD 1,020.21/MT. This marks the first time the MGO LS index has surpassed the USD 1,000.00 level since October 16, 2023. At the time of writing, however, the global bunker market has begun to show signs of a corrective downward trend following the sharp upward movement.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—narrowed slightly by USD 3.99, declining from USD 97.70 last week to USD 91.71. Despite this reduction, the spread remained close to the psychological USD 100.00 breakeven threshold for scrubber economics, while the weekly average of the index increased by USD 4.14. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread remained largely stable, decreasing marginally by USD 1.00 to USD 51.00 compared to USD 52.00 in the previous week, while the weekly average in the port also declined by USD 1.00. In Singapore, by contrast, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread continued to widen, rising by USD 21.00 from USD 74.00 last week to USD 95.00, approaching the USD 100.00 level. The weekly average spread in Singapore also increased significantly, gaining USD 19.00. Overall, the SS Spread ended the week with mixed dynamics across major bunkering hubs, reflecting heightened volatility in the global bunker market. Nevertheless, the spread remained below the USD 100.00 threshold, indicating that VLSFO continues to retain stronger economic competitiveness compared to the 380 HSFO + scrubber combination. Given the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict and its potential impact on energy supply expectations, the SS Spread may continue to demonstrate divergent movements across regional markets in the coming week. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section on mabux.com.
The Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) ended the week with a sharp increase, rising by USD 125.00 from USD 100.00 last week to USD 225.00, while the weekly average advanced by USD 42.50. In Venice, the ECA Spread showed only marginal changes. The index edged down slightly by USD 2.00, from USD 92.00 to USD 90.00, while the weekly average recorded a modest increase of USD 1.33. The sharp rise in the Istanbul ES index primarily reflects a surge in diesel prices across the regional bunker market amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, which have intensified volatility and tightened supply expectations in the distillate segment. Given the current geopolitical environment and the sensitivity of diesel prices to regional supply disruptions, the ECA Spread may retain potential for further gains in the coming week. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section on mabux.com.
QatarEnergy, Qatar’s state-owned energy major, has suspended all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following Iranian drone strikes on key facilities, effectively removing approximately 20% of global LNG supply from the market. This unprecedented disruption represents a severe supply shock with immediate and potentially structural implications for global gas markets. Europe appears particularly exposed under these conditions. Gas inventories entering the shoulder season were already below the levels that had previously underpinned market confidence. The sudden loss of Qatari volumes significantly tightens the supply-demand balance, limiting Europe’s flexibility ahead of the next injection cycle. At the same time, Asian buyers are likely to compete aggressively for any available spot cargoes.
As of March 3, the level of gas reserves in European underground storage facilities continued to decline, falling to 29.89% of total capacity, down a further 0.70 percentage points compared to the previous week. Storage levels are now 31.57 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year, when inventories stood at 61.46% on January 1, 2026, reflecting sustained withdrawals during the winter period and limited replenishment. Against this backdrop, the European gas benchmark TTF recorded a sharp increase by the end of week 10, rising by EUR 23.399/MWh, from EUR 30.891/MWh in the previous week to EUR 54.290/MWh. As a result, the benchmark surpassed the EUR 50/MWh threshold, indicating a significant tightening in the regional gas market and heightened price volatility amid declining storage levels and growing geopolitical uncertainties affecting energy supply expectations.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) decreased marginally by USD 1.00 week-on-week, reaching USD 774/MT compared to USD 775/MT the previous week. At the same time, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel widened significantly in favor of LNG, expanding to USD 165. As of March 2, MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at USD 939/MT, reflecting a temporary upswing in bunker prices driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Further details are available in the “LNG Bunkering” section on mabux.com.
High volatility in the global bunker market has significantly altered the trends of the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which measures the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP)—across the world’s major bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.:
• 380 HSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore moved into the overvaluation zone, joining Fujairah, with the average weekly MDI increasing by 35 points in Rotterdam, 30 points in Singapore, and 25 points in Fujairah. Houston remained the only port in the undervalued zone, with its average MDI decreasing by 33 points over the week. At the same time, Rotterdam’s MDI remained close to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP, indicating that market prices in the port remain broadly aligned with the digital benchmark despite the recent volatility.
• VLSFO segment: Fujairah’s MDI reached the 100% correlation level between market prices and the digital benchmark, while the other major hubs shifted into the overvalued zone. Premiums increased notably, with the MDI rising by 32 points in Rotterdam, 47 points in Singapore, and 32 points in Houston. Rotterdam’s MDI also remained close to the 100% correlation threshold, suggesting that pricing dynamics there continue to track the digital benchmark relatively closely.
• MGO LS segment: all monitored ports remained in the undervalued zone, although the MDI declined further across the board. The weekly average fell by 24 points in Rotterdam, 22 points in Singapore, 4 points in Fujairah, and 54 points in Houston.
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp rise in bunker prices, pushing the MDI into the overvalued zone in both the 380 HSFO and VLSFO segments. The current trend toward fuel revaluation continues to develop, and if the upward price momentum persists, the MGO LS segment may also shift into the overvalued zone in the coming week. Overall, the prevailing market conditions suggest that fuel overvaluation may remain the dominant trend in the global bunker market in the near term. More detailed information on the correlation between market bunker prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on mabux.com.
From 1 March 2026, the Canadian Arctic and the Norwegian Sea were officially designated as new Emission Control Areas (ECAs), following amendments to MARPOL Annex VI adopted at IMO MEPC 84 in October 2024. Although the ECAs formally entered into force on that date, the key operational requirement — the mandatory use of marine fuel with a sulphur content not exceeding 0.10% — will become applicable from 1 March 2027. The 12-month transitional period is intended to facilitate adjustments in fuel supply logistics and bunker market readiness. The Canadian Arctic ECA represents an extension of the existing North American ECA, now encompassing all Canadian Arctic waters. Similarly, the Norwegian Sea ECA expands the geographical scope of the current North Sea ECA, covering Norwegian waters up to the Russian maritime border. As a result, the geographical footprint of global 0.10% sulphur-compliant zones will increase further, reinforcing regional decarbonisation and air quality objectives. In addition to sulphur limits, the amendments introduce Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Tier III requirements for certain categories of newbuild vessels operating within these ECAs. Under the revised framework, marine diesel engines with a rated power output exceeding 130 kW must comply with Tier III emission standards. Overall, the expansion of ECAs in these regions signals a further tightening of regional emission controls, with medium-term implications for fuel demand patterns, fleet renewal strategies and compliance cost structures.
The escalation of armed conflict in the Middle East has significantly intensified geopolitical tensions, triggering a sharp rise in bunker fuel prices across the global market. As long as the conflict persists and uncertainty surrounding regional energy supply remains high, the bunker market is likely to stay highly volatile, which may continue to exert upward pressure on global bunker indices.
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