Bunker Global Open Directory News
2026-05-28MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 22, 2026.
During the week, the global bunker market showed a downward trend amid reports of a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran. As a result, by the end of the week, the 380 HSFO index fell by USD 41.82: from USD 789.89/MT last week to USD 748.07/MT. The VLSFO index decreased by USD 63.13 (USD 884.26/MT against USD 947.39/MT last week), breaking through the USD 900.00 mark. The MGO LS index, in turn, decreased by USD 80.94 (from USD 1404.96/MT last week to USD 1324.02/MT), falling below USD 1400.00 and approaching USD 1300.00. At the time of writing, the market was in a phase of multidirectional fluctuations.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — continued to narrow during the week, declining by a further USD 21.31 from USD 157.50 last week to USD 136.19. Despite the decrease, the spread remained comfortably above the psychological USD 100.00 breakeven threshold. The weekly average of the index also fell by USD 18.09. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread moved in the opposite direction, increasing by USD 17.00 from USD 51.00 last week to USD 68.00, while its weekly average declined by USD 9.83. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread widened by USD 6.00, rising from USD 148.00 last week to USD 154.00, although the port’s weekly average edged down by USD 2.50. Overall, the SS Spread remained relatively stable throughout the week, preserving the broader trend toward improved scrubber cost-efficiency when using 380 HSFO compared to conventional VLSFO. We expect mixed movements in the SS Spread to persist in the near term amid continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and elevated market volatility. Detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.
The Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) remained unchanged at USD 50.00 during the week, while its weekly average declined by USD 28.33. The Venice ECA Spread remains uncalculated due to the absence of regular market quotations. Amid the ongoing holiday period in Turkey, we expect the ECA Spread to remain relatively stable next week. Detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.
American LNG suppliers are urging the EU to delay enforcement of its methane emissions rules until at least 2028, warning that regulatory uncertainty is already slowing long-term gas contracting at a critical stage for the market. Under the EU methane law, gas imports from 2027 must either meet monitoring and verification standards equivalent to those in Europe or comply with strict certification requirements. The regulation is a central element of the EU’s climate agenda. The rules have faced mounting industry criticism in recent months. Earlier this year, oil and gas companies, including major European firms, called on Brussels to suspend implementation, warning the measures could disrupt fuel imports and undermine supply security.
The level of natural gas reserves in European underground storage facilities continued to increase moderately as of May 26, reaching 38.52% of total capacity, up by 1.85 percentage points compared to the previous week. Nevertheless, the pace of injections remains relatively weak, with storage occupancy still 22.94% below the level recorded at the beginning of the year (61.46%). At the end of Week 22, the European gas benchmark TTF declined by EUR 4.344/MWh, falling from EUR 51.816/MWh last week to EUR 47.472/MWh.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) declined further this week, falling by USD 115.00 to USD 1,094/MT, compared to USD 1,209/MT the previous week. At the same time, the price spread between LNG and conventional fuel widened to USD 169.00 in favor of LNG, versus USD 96.00 a week earlier. On May 25, MGO LS was assessed at USD 1,263/MT at the port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section on mabux.com.
The Week 22 MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — the ratio between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — recorded the following trends across the world’s major bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undervalued zone. The level of discount widened by 1 point in Rotterdam and by 2 points in Singapore, while narrowing by 22 points in Fujairah and by 37 points in Houston. Notably, Fujairah’s MDI approached the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP.
• VLSFO segment: Houston moved into the overvalued zone, joining Fujairah. The overpricing premium increased by 45 points in Fujairah and by 40 points in Houston, with Houston remaining close to the 100% MBP/DBP correlation mark. Rotterdam and Singapore continued to be undervalued, although the MDI discount widened by 12 points in Rotterdam and narrowed by 2 points in Singapore.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston remained undervalued. MDI levels increased by 132 points in Rotterdam and by 2 points in Singapore, while declining by 4 points in Houston. Fujairah continued to be the only overvalued port in this fuel category, with its premium increasing by a further 17 points. MDI values in Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah remained consistently above the USD 100.00 level.
Overall, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports shifted slightly further toward overvaluation during the week, as Houston entered the overvalued zone in the VLSFO segment. Nevertheless, this development did not alter the broader DBP trend, where multidirectional fluctuations continue to dominate amid elevated market volatility.
More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on mabux.com.
According to Wood Mackenzie, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents “the single greatest threat to global energy markets in decades.” More than 11 million b/d of Gulf crude and condensate production is currently disrupted, while over 80 Mtpa of LNG supply — around 20% of global volumes — remains inaccessible to international markets. WoodMac outlined three scenarios for the conflict. In the most optimistic “Quick Peace” case, a near-term agreement leads to the Strait reopening by June, allowing the global economy to return broadly to its pre-conflict trajectory by Q4 2026. The “Summer Settlement” scenario assumes negotiations continue into late summer, keeping the Strait largely closed until September. Under this case, oil and LNG shortages persist through Q3 2026, pushing the global economy into a shallow recession in H2 2026. In the most severe “Extended Disruption” scenario, the Strait remains largely closed through end-2026, with recurring tensions causing renewed conflict and prolonged supply disruptions.
The market continues to be influenced by two opposing factors. On the one hand, reports about a possible peace agreement in the Middle East are putting pressure on prices, raising expectations for more stable traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand, ongoing geopolitical tensions and limited military activity near the strait continue to support prices, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the current ceasefire. Against this backdrop, MABUX expects mixed movements in global bunker indices to continue in the near term, with high market volatility likely to persist.
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