Bunker Global Open Directory News
2026-06-04MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 23, 2026.
During the week, the global bunker market remained volatile, with fuel indices moving in different directions amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the prospects for a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, the MABUX 380 HSFO Index declined by USD 9.99, falling from USD 728.71/MT last week to USD 718.72/MT. In contrast, the MABUX VLSFO Index posted a modest gain of USD 1.39, rising from USD 865.57/MT to USD 866.96/MT. Meanwhile, the MABUX MGO LS Index decreased by USD 13.02, dropping from USD 1,304.84/MT to USD 1,291.82/MT and falling below the USD 1,300.00/MT threshold for the first time since March 6, 2026. At the time of writing, bunker fuel prices were showing indications of renewed upward momentum, suggesting a potential recovery phase following the week's mixed performance.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — widened by USD 11.38 during the week, increasing from USD 136.86 to USD 148.24. The index continued its upward trajectory, approaching the USD 150.00 mark and remaining comfortably above the key breakeven threshold of USD 100.00. At the same time, the weekly average of the Global SS Spread edged down marginally by USD 0.98. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread gained a further USD 18.00, rising from USD 88.00 last week to USD 106.00 and once again moving above the USD 100.00 level. The port’s weekly average SS Spread increased significantly by USD 29.66, reflecting improving scrubber economics. By contrast, in Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO differential narrowed slightly by USD 2.00, declining from USD 150.00 to USD 148.00. Nevertheless, the weekly average SS Spread in the port increased by USD 2.50. Although regional dynamics remained mixed, the Global SS Spread demonstrated overall stability throughout the week and consistently held above the USD 100.00 breakeven level. This continued to support the economic advantage of operating vessels equipped with scrubbers and consuming 380 HSFO rather than conventional VLSFO.
Looking ahead, we expect the SS Spread to remain subject to mixed fluctuations in the near term, driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and elevated volatility across global energy and bunker fuel markets. For additional details, please refer to the "Differentials" section on mabux.com.
The Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) ended the week with a strong increase of USD 45.00, rising from USD 30.00 last week to USD 75.00. The index continued to recover from recent lows, gradually moving toward the USD 100.00 level, while its weekly average increased by USD 1.67. The Venice ECA Spread remains unavailable due to the continued lack of regular market quotations required for index calculation. Given the recent signs of market stabilization, we expect the ECA Spread to maintain its upward momentum in the coming week, although its dynamics will remain dependent on broader developments in the bunker fuel market. For more detailed information, please refer to the "Differentials" section on mabux.com.
Europe entered the current gas injection season with unusually low inventories after a prolonged winter, with storage facilities only 28% full at the start of the refill period. As a result, Europe faces a growing risk of falling short of its typical winter readiness target of 90% storage capacity. Under EU regulations, member states are expected to maintain storage levels in the 80–90% range before the start of the heating season. According to Equinor, a rapid resolution of current supply disruptions could still allow Europe to reach a manageable storage level of around 75% by the end of the injection season. However, a disruption lasting one to three months would significantly tighten the market and could push TTF gas prices toward €90/MWh. Higher gas prices would likely trigger demand-side adjustments, including an estimated 10 bcm reduction in gas-fired power generation demand and increased fuel switching by industrial consumers.
As of June 2, gas inventories in European underground storage facilities continued their gradual recovery, reaching 40.76% of total capacity. This represents an increase of 2.24 percentage points compared to the previous week. Nevertheless, storage levels remain 20.70 percentage points below those recorded at the beginning of the year (61.46%) and continue to lag significantly behind the seasonal norm of 50%. Meanwhile, the European gas benchmark TTF remained largely stable during Week 23. The index edged up by just EUR 0.135/MWh, increasing from EUR 47.472/MWh the previous week to EUR 47.607/MWh.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) increased by USD 5.00 again this week (USD 1,099/MT compared to USD 1,094/MT last week). Meanwhile, the price difference between LNG and conventional fuel narrowed to USD 32 in favor of LNG (compared to USD 169 the week before): MGO LS was quoted at USD 1,131/MT at the port of Sines on June 1. More detailed information is available in the "LNG Bunkering" section of mabux.com.
At the end of Week 23, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — the ratio between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — continued to display mixed dynamics across the world's four major bunker hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: Fujairah and Houston moved into the overvalued zone, with premium levels increasing by 34 and 61 points, respectively. Rotterdam and Singapore remained undervalued, although their discount levels narrowed by 2 and 30 points. Houston's MDI approached full parity between MBP and DBP, indicating a near-perfect correlation between market prices and the digital benchmark.
• VLSFO segment: Houston returned to the undervalued zone, joining Rotterdam and Singapore. The degree of undervaluation decreased by 45 points in Rotterdam and 41 points in Singapore, while increasing by 8 points in Houston. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port in this segment, with its premium widening by a further 103 points. Houston's MDI also moved closer to the 100% correlation threshold between MBP and DBP.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston continued to be assessed as undervalued. Discount levels widened by 132 points in Rotterdam and 13 points in Houston, while Singapore recorded a marginal increase of 1 point. Fujairah remained the sole overvalued port in the segment, with its premium expanding by an additional 79 points. The MDI values in Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah continued to remain consistently above the USD 100.00 level.
Overall, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports evolved unevenly during the week. Two ports shifted into the overvalued zone in the 380 HSFO segment, while one port moved into the undervalued zone in the VLSFO segment. These developments reflect the continuation of mixed trends in the relationship between market bunker prices and the MABUX digital benchmark amid persistently elevated market volatility.
More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark is available in the "Digital Bunker Prices" section of mabux.com.
According to Carlyle Group, global oil inventories are rapidly approaching critical minimum levels. Asia is the first region to face operational stock constraints, with Europe expected to follow soon. In Asia, supply pressures are already visible. Singapore's jet fuel inventories have declined, while diesel prices have risen above jet fuel prices, reflecting stronger demand and limited availability. The issue extends beyond Singapore, as total Asian oil stocks are now close to minimum operational levels. Since early May, global oil inventory draws have averaged 8.7 million barrels per day—the highest rate on record. At the same time, physical oil markets continue to tighten, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz estimated at only about 5% of normal volumes. Several analysts believe that once the full impact of the supply disruption is reflected in the market, oil prices could rise significantly and remain elevated for an extended period. Beyond the immediate loss of Middle Eastern supply, the market is also facing the consequences of years of underinvestment in new upstream projects outside OPEC+, a risk that the producer group has repeatedly highlighted over the past several years. With estimates suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz could remain disrupted for at least another month even under a peace agreement, the likelihood of oil shortages in Europe is increasing, while U.S. consumers are likely to face higher gasoline prices.
We expect global bunker indices to continue exhibiting mixed dynamics next week, as temporary market stabilization is offset by persistent uncertainty surrounding the prospects for a settlement of the Middle East conflict. Elevated market volatility is likely to remain the key driver of divergent price movements across bunker fuel segments.
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