Bunker Global Open Directory News
2025-04-10MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 15, 2025.
The decline in oil prices, driven by the United States' imposition of additional customs duties on goods from 185 countries and concerns that such measures could trigger a global economic recession, has exerted significant pressure on bunker prices. By the end of the 15th week, the MABUX world bunker indices recorded a sharp decrease. The 380 HSFO index dropped by 51.11 USD, falling from 508.98 USD/MT last week to 457.78 USD/MT, slipping well below the 500 USD mark. The VLSFO index decreased by 49.60 USD, from 588.61 USD/MT last week to 539.01 USD/MT. The MGO index fell by 49.71 USD, from 774.40 USD/MT last week to 724.69 USD/MT. At the time of writing, the market continued to exhibit a steady downward trend.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—saw a slight increase of $1.51, rising from $79.72 last week to $81.23, once again surpassing the $80.00 mark. However, the average weekly index value declined marginally by $0.16. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread fell by $1.00, dropping from $46.00 last week to $45.00, with the port's average weekly value decreasing by $3.17. Meanwhile, in Singapore, the price gap between 380 HSFO and VLSFO narrowed by $5.00, from $70.00 last week to $65.00, though the average weekly value in the port increased by $3.00. Overall, SS Spread indices have re-entered a phase of multidirectional fluctuations without a clear trend. Given the current high market volatility, these mixed dynamics are likely to persist next week. For more details, visit the Differentials section of mabux.com.
EU countries are negotiating changes to mandatory gas storage rules for 2026 and 2027. The proposed revisions would replace the current requirement of filling storage to 90% by November 1 with a more flexible target, allowing the same level of capacity to be reached at any time between October 1 and December 1. Additionally, existing interim storage targets for February, May, July, and September may become voluntary in the future. However, the European Commission is advocating for a two-year extension of the current mandatory system. This proposal has faced opposition from several European governments, including Germany, France, and the Netherlands. These countries argue that rigid targets inflate gas prices by signaling to the market that European buyers must purchase large volumes within fixed deadlines, increasing the risk of price manipulation.
As of April 8, European regional storage facilities were filled to 33.59%, reflecting an increase of 1.36% from the previous week but a decrease of 36.38% since the beginning of the year (71.33%). This marks the first positive trend in gas replenishment since early 2025. By the end of the 15th week, the European gas benchmark TTF saw a significant decline, dropping by 6.219 euros/MWh to 36.231 euros/MWh, down from 42.450 euros/MWh the previous week.
LNG bunker fuel prices in the port of Sines (Portugal) also experienced a sharp drop, falling to $680/MT from $787/MT the previous week. Meanwhile, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel on April 9 shifted in favor of LNG, with the difference narrowing to $30 from $51 in favor of MGO LS a week earlier. On that day, MGO LS was quoted at $710/MT in Sines. For more details, visit the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.
At the end of the 15th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which compares market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP)—showed the following trends across the 380 HSFO and VLSFO segments:
• 380 HSFO segment: Singapore returned to the overvalued zone, becoming the only overvalued port in this segment, with the weekly average MDI rising by 11 points. The other three ports remained undervalued, with the average undervaluation decreasing by 1 point in Rotterdam, 8 points in Fujairah, 16 points in Houston. The MDI in Rotterdam and Singapore remained close to the 100% correlation mark between the market price (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP).
• VLSFO segment: all four selected ports remained in the undervalued zone. The weekly average MDI values decreased by 1 point in Rotterdam, 18 points in Singapore and 11 points in Fujairah, but rose 1 point in Houston.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam was the only overvalued port, with the weekly average MDI increasing by another 15 points. The other three ports were undervalued. The MDI increased by 1 point in Singapore, but fell by 8 points in Fujairah and 7 points in Houston.
In the 380 HSFO segment, Singapore moved into the overvalued zone, while the balance in the other bunker fuel segments remained unchanged. The undervaluation/overvaluation balance is expected to remain stable next week.
For more details on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark, visit the Digital Bunker Prices section on mabux.com.
Methanol led the order book for alternative fuel ships in March, accounting for 12 of the 25 new orders, according to DNV. The classification society reported no methanol ship orders in the first two months of the year. Among the methanol-fueled vessels ordered in March, three were car carriers, three were cruise ships, one was an offshore vessel, and one was a bulk carrier. The remaining four were oil or chemical tankers. Additionally, seven LNG-powered ships were ordered, all in the container segment. This brings the total number of LNG orders in the first three months of 2025 to 52 units, representing nearly three-quarters of all alternative fuel ship orders this year. The ammonia segment saw two new orders—both oil/chemical tankers—bringing the total for the year to three. Meanwhile, the LPG segment added four more orders, bringing the total number of LPG-powered vessels ordered this quarter to eight. Overall, 71 alternative fuel vessels were ordered in the first quarter of 2025, a 13% decline year-on-year, largely attributed to a weaker newbuild market.
We believe that, given the high market volatility and the ongoing trade war, the downward trend will dominate global bunker index dynamics. However, sporadic fluctuations in prices, driven by geopolitical and economic developments, cannot be ruled out.
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